Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia
DOI: 10.1080/00074919812331337430
Title: Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia
Journal Title: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
Volume: Volume 34
Issue: Issue 3
Publication Date: December 1998
Start Page: 85
End Page: 113
Published online: 20 Aug 2006
ISSN: 0007-4918
a University of Adelaide
b Centre for Strategic and International Studies , Jakarta
Abstract: How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's Economy? Taking an Economy-wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall Economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear; follow-on research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.

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